Could GTA 6's Release Really Cost The US Economy $1 Billion In Just One Day?

The release of "Grand Theft Auto 6" is predicted to obliterate many long-standing video game industry records. Whether it's for sales figures, concurrent player count, or overall revenue, Rockstar Games is set to shatter most, if not all, standards for a video game. With a reported $600 million already accrued in pre-order sales alone (with most of those being for the $100 version of the game), some are claiming that the launch of "GTA 6" might end up putting a significant dent in the global economy.

This doesn't stem from sales numbers, but instead from the fact that so many players are likely going to be skipping work on Nov. 19 to play "GTA 6." An analyst from a university in Barcelona is predicting that over one million players will call in sick or out of work to play "GTA 6" on release day. While the exact number could be wrong, it's a given that some players will choose to play over working for at least a day or two. But will this cost the United States economy gigantic sums of money, as some headlines have claimed?

The International Business Times alludes to a study that was apparently performed by José García Montalvo, a professor of economics at Pompeu Fabra University in Barcelona, Spain, and the IBT claims the United States could lose $1 billion in a single day because of "GTA 6." But upon further investigation, we cannot independently verify the legitimacy of that study.

According to the IBTimes article, an estimated 1.5 million US workers will not show up for work on Nov. 19, the release date for "GTA 6." The logic behind the study appears to be that players want to spend time playing "GTA 6" on the day of release, and to do that, they need to skip work.

However, that "1.5 million workers" number does not appear in a report that appears to have introduced this study to the world, so it's unclear how IBT arrived at that figure. The article also says that the average yearly salary for the US workforce is roughly $70,000 (which is true), meaning that, on average, US workers earn around $270 per workday. 

This is where the IBT report starts to get some things incorrect, though. If we take their reported 1.5 million missing workers into account, an average of $270 per day per employee only equates to around $400 million of lost revenue. Since the article also mentions that their referenced study primarily factors in males in the 18-30 age range, the real lost revenue number for the US economy is likely lower than $1 billion — and that's assuming 1.5 million employees actually call out of work.

Regardless, though, Nov. 19 and potentially Nov. 20 will be catastrophic from a productivity standpoint in the United States. But of course, that lost revenue, whatever number it turns out to be, isn't simply disappearing into the wind. Instead, it's going straight to the pockets of Take-Two Interactive and Rockstar Games. According to Take-Two's projections, it predicts that the company will make roughly $1 billion for this fiscal year.

While "GTA 6" isn't the sole source of revenue in that prediction, it likely accounts for the vast majority of it, as the game has already accrued $600 million in pre-order sales, with even more revenue coming at launch and during the holiday season. This also doesn't even account for PC sales, as that platform is likely seeing a "GTA 6" release in early 2027. Just how much revenue will change hands between American gamers and Take-Two remains to be seen, but it certainly seems like it sets that company up for continued success in the future, when Rockstar releases its next game after "GTA 6."